Managing fiscal risks in Albania: Challenges, comparative insights, and policy recommendations

Authors

  • Anisa Kume Faculty of Economy, University of Tirana

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.2478/rsep-2025-0007

Keywords:

Fiscal Risks, Fiscal Risk Statement (FRS), Public Financial Management (PFM) Strategy, Albania, Western Balkans

Abstract

Fiscal risk management is a key aspect of good public financial management, especially in developing countries such as Albania. This paper presents the principal sources of fiscal risks in Albania, with particular reference to state-owned enterprises (SOEs), public-private partnerships (PPPs), and contingent liabilities arising from natural disasters. Drawing on recent fiscal reports, IMF assessments, and national budgetary documents, the paper discusses the transparency, evaluation, and mitigation of fiscal risks in the Albanian context. Although considerable progress has been made in fiscal reporting and risk disclosure, crucial gaps remain in monitoring and mitigating quasi-fiscal liabilities and climate-related risks. Comparative perspectives with regional peers are included to highlight regional trends and best practices. The findings show that while Albania has made progress, major challenges remain, particularly in integrating climate and disaster risks into fiscal frameworks and in improving the governance of SOEs and PPPs. Our examination suggests that a comprehensive and transparent fiscal risk management framework is needed to support Albania's fiscal sustainability and resilience to potential shocks. The paper concludes with practical recommendations directed to policymakers and fiscal authorities for the construction of a more robust and forward-looking fiscal risk framework.

This article is among the first to examine Albania's fiscal risks systematically by combining scenario analysis, cross-country benchmarking, and stress testing. By placing Albania's experience in regional and international contexts, the study contributes new empirical evidence on fiscal risk management in emerging economies.

References

Baldacci, E., Gupta, S., & Mulas-Granados, C., 2011. Assessing Fiscal Risks. IMF Working Paper, No. 11/255.

Cebotari, A., 2008. Contingent Liabilities: Issues and Practice. IMF Working Paper, No. 08/245.

Clarke, D., & Mahul, O., 2011. Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance: Issues and Results. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 6056.

GFDRR (Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery), 2014. Financial Protection Against Natural Disasters: An Operational Framework for Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance. World Bank.

IMF (International Monetary Fund), 2016. Analyzing and Managing Fiscal Risks—Best Practices. Fiscal Affairs Department.

IMF, 2019. Fiscal Transparency Handbook. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

IMF, 2023. Republic of Serbia: Article IV Consultation Report. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Ministry of Finance and Economy of Albania, 2024. Annual Budget Documentation. Tirana: Ministry of Finance.

OECD, 2015. Recommendation of the Council on Budgetary Governance. Paris: OECD Publishing.

World Bank, 2021. Albania Country Economic Memorandum: Seizing the Growth Opportunities. Washington, DC: World Bank.

World Bank, 2021. North Macedonia: Enhancing Public Investment Management and PPP Governance. Washington, DC: World Bank.

World Bank, 2023. Western Balkans Regular Economic Report. No. 24, Fall 2023.

World Bank, 2025. Draft Disaster Risk Fiscal Assessment: Albania. Washington, DC: World Bank.

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Published

2025-06-30

Issue

Vol. 10 No. 1 (2025): Review of Socio-Economic Perspectives

Section

Research Articles

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